What Every Team (Groups C–L) Needs to Do to Make It Out of the Group Stage
An analysis of the World Cup's remaining group play matchups
With the group stages almost over, many teams are still fighting for their place in the knockout stage of this World Cup. For some, the path forward is simple: win the final match and guarantee qualification. For others, advancement depends on a combination of results, goal difference, and help from other teams.
Every point matters at this stage of the tournament. In past editions of the most watched sporting event in the world, many teams entering the last game of the group stage already knew their fate. With qualification secured or elimination confirmed, third- and fourth-place teams often had little left to play for. This year, however, the expanded format and tighter groups have created more meaningful games late into the stage. The most notable change this year is the addition of the best third-place team qualification. In previous World Cups, the top two teams from each group advanced, meaning teams finishing third were eliminated regardless of their record. This year, with the tournament expanding from 32 to 48 teams, the top two teams from each group and the eight best third-place teams will move on to the knockout stage.
This completely changes the group stage strategy. Instead of third-place teams just giving up, teams can stay alive by gaining points and trying to maintain as high of a goal differential (goals scored minus goals conceded) as possible. Even teams sitting in third or fourth place entering the final match have a realistic path to the knockouts, making every match and every goal significantly more important.
As the group stage reaches its conclusion, the pressure is at its highest. The remaining matches will determine which teams continue their runs and which teams fall just short.
At the time of writing this article, 3 of the 12 groups have already concluded their matches. These groups are:
Group A
Mexico - 9 points (advance)
South Africa - 4 points (advance)
South Korea - 3 points
Czechia - 1 point (eliminated)
Group B
Switzerland - 7 points (advance)
Canada - 4 points (advance)
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 4 points
Qatar - 1 point (eliminated)
Group C
Brazil - 7 points (advance)
Morocco - 7 points (advance)
Scotland - 3 points
Haiti - 1 point (eliminated)
From these groups, South Korea, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Scotland are situated in the third-place team table.
While Groups A through C have already concluded, the real drama begins as the remaining groups approach their final matches over this week. With teams fighting not only for the top two spots but also for one of the eight third-place qualification spots, the margin for error is extremely small. Here is what every team in Groups D through L needs to do to make it out of the group stage.
Group D
United States - 6 points:
As the first team to secure qualification to the knockouts, the United States is both guaranteed to make it to the knockout stage and finish at the top of its group. This is because of the restructuring of the tiebreakers. Traditionally, when teams end on the same number of points, the first tiebreaker is goal difference. This World Cup, however, that tiebreaker is head-to-head. That means that if two teams are tied on points, whoever won their match against each other takes the higher position. If there was a draw, the next tiebreaker returns to goal difference, and then fair play. The next two teams in Group D are Paraguay and Australia, both of which the United States has beaten. As a result, even if the United States loses its last match and Australia beats Paraguay, the United States will still top its group.
Australia - 3 points:
Australia would guarantee qualification with a draw or win against Paraguay, beating out third-place Paraguay on goal difference (0 vs. -2).
Paraguay - 3 points:
Paraguay would guarantee qualification with a win against Australia. The path to qualification would be a bit more difficult with a draw, but the general standard for qualification as a third-place team is 4 points. With a draw, the Paraguayans should be uneasily comfortable.
Turkey - 1 point:
The team with the most extravagant send-off is unfortunately eliminated.
Group E
Germany - 6 points:
In the same situation as the United States, Germany is guaranteed to finish at the top of its group as well.
Ivory Coast - 3 points:
Ivory Coast needs a point against Curaçao to guarantee qualification.
Ecuador - 1 point:
Ecuador needs to beat Germany to have at least a third-place route. To place second, Ecuador needs Curaçao to defeat Ivory Coast.
Curaçao - 1 point:
After a brutal, trauma-inducing 7-1 defeat to Germany in its opening match, Curaçao would be one of the lowest teams in the third-place bracket even with a win against Ivory Coast, with a -6 goal difference. Curaçao would finish second in its group with a victory over Ivory Coast and if Germany beats Ecuador.
Group F
Netherlands - 4 points:
The Netherlands would guarantee qualification with a win or a draw against Tunisia.
Japan - 4 points:
Japan would qualify with a draw or win against Sweden.
Sweden - 3 points:
Sweden needs to beat Japan to guarantee qualification, though a draw would give it a level goal difference and a good chance of third-place qualification.
Tunisia - 0 points:
After a devastating 5-1 loss to Sweden and a 4-0 loss to Japan, the Eagles of Carthage are eliminated.
Group G
Egypt - 4 points:
Egypt would guarantee qualification with a draw or win against Iran.
Iran - 2 points:
Iran would guarantee qualification with a win against Egypt. If Iran draws with Egypt, it must hope for a draw in the Belgium vs. New Zealand match. This is because it would move on after a long series of tiebreakers. If both Belgium and Iran draw, they would both end on 3 points. With Iran vs. Belgium ending 0-0, the head-to-head tiebreaker is broken. The next tiebreaker is goal difference, where both teams would end on a goal difference of 0. The advancing team would come down to the third tiebreaker, goals scored, where Iran edges out Belgium, having scored two goals this World Cup compared with Belgium’s one. Therefore, Iran just needs to score the same number of goals or more as Belgium in its last match to move on. A loss would almost guarantee elimination.
Belgium - 2 points:
Belgium would guarantee qualification with a win against New Zealand and would almost be guaranteed to be knocked out with a draw.
New Zealand - 1 point:
New Zealand and Tim Payne need to beat Belgium to have a third-place route and hope Iran loses to Egypt to finish second.
Group H
Spain - 4 points:
Spain would guarantee qualification with a draw or win against Uruguay.
Uruguay - 2 points:
Uruguay needs to beat Spain to guarantee qualification. A draw would give it a slim chance of a third-place route.
Cape Verde - 2 points:
Cape Verde will progress if it beats Saudi Arabia. A draw would be treacherous.
Saudi Arabia - 1 point:
Saudi Arabia needs to beat Cape Verde to have at least a third-place route and needs Spain to beat Uruguay to place second.
Group I (the most predictable group)
France - 6 points:
France has already qualified. A win or a draw will make it top the group.
Norway - 6 points:
Norway has qualified. A win over France would allow it to top the group.
Senegal - 0 points:
Senegal needs a win to have a chance through the third-place route, but it is very unlikely even if it finishes on 3 points.
Iraq - 0 points:
Iraq needs a win to have a chance through the third-place route, but it is very unlikely even if it finishes on 3 points with a goal difference of -6.
Group J
Argentina - 6 points:
Argentina is through as group winner.
Austria - 3 points:
Austria would progress with a win or a draw against Algeria.
Algeria - 3 points:
Algeria would finish second if it secures a win over Austria.
Jordan - 0 points:
Jordan is eliminated.
Group K
Colombia - 6 points:
Colombia has qualified and will top the group if it secures at least a draw against Portugal.
Portugal - 4 points:
Portugal qualifies if it avoids defeat against Colombia, and with four points and a strong goal difference, it would have to lose heavily to miss out on a third-place route.
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) - 1 point:
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) needs to beat Uzbekistan to keep its hopes alive, but as one of the last groups to kick off, it would probably know how many goals it needs to win by for a third-place route, or if any win would be sufficient at all.
Uzbekistan - 0 points:
Uzbekistan will need to beat the DRC by a big margin to stay alive and will be eliminated by kickoff if too many groups have third-place teams with four points.
Group L
England - 4 points:
England qualifies if it wins or draws against Panama.
Ghana - 4 points:
Ghana qualifies if it avoids defeat against Croatia.
Croatia - 3 points:
Croatia needs to beat Ghana to be sure of qualifying and may have a third-place route with a draw.
Panama - 0 points:
Panama has been eliminated.
As more games conclude, we will have a better outlook on what teams will need to make it out as a third-place team. As of now, it is safe to say that teams with 4 points or more and a decent goal difference are safe as third-place teams, while teams with anything less should be glued to every result.
The final matches of the group stage promise to bring some of the most exciting moments of the tournament. With qualification battles going down to the final whistle, this expanded World Cup has delivered exactly what fans hoped for: more teams, more meaningful games, and more to anticipate.
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