Texas Is Still Red. Could Ken Paxton Change That?

Tuesday's primary in the Lone Star State may help Democrats take back the Senate

Following the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Texas this Tuesday, our polling average for the general election shifted slightly toward Democratic nominee James Talarico, though not because voters themselves suddenly moved dramatically.

Instead, the change mostly comes from the fact that we now know who his opponent is.

Before the GOP primary, our polling average included surveys testing both Attorney General Ken Paxton and current U.S. Senator John Cornyn against Talarico. Now that Paxton is officially the Republican nominee, the outcome Democrats preferred given his scandal-ridden record, the average only includes Talarico vs. Paxton polls, removing any surveys that included Cornyn.

That matters because Cornyn generally performed slightly better against Talarico than Paxton did.

Before the adjustment, Talarico led the combined Republican average 43.3% to 39.8%. Now, in the Paxton-only average, Talarico leads 44.1% to 39.6%, a single-point increase. In the nowcast, which forecasts the election if it were held today using only polls, Talarico improved from a 78% chance to an 84% chance of victory. Prediction markets aren’t as high on Talarico, but still show a close race.

So yes, Democrats are in a slightly stronger position than before, but it is important not to overstate what changed. Talarico was already favored in the polling average before the primary. The race did not suddenly become competitive overnight — it already was.

For that reason though, Republicans should be at least somewhat concerned by these numbers.

At the same time, Texas has earned the benefit of the doubt politically until proven otherwise. We have seen hopeful “Blexas” conversations multiple times before, especially in 2018 and 2020. Beto O’Rourke came surprisingly close to defeating Ted Cruz in the 2018 Senate race, and Democrats (and the polls) believed Joe Biden had an outside shot at carrying the state two years later. Instead, Trump still won Texas comfortably in both 2020 and 2024.

Texas is still a Republican state. Democrats have not won a statewide race there since the 1990s, and late undecided voters in Texas historically tend to move toward Republicans rather than away from them. That trend alone makes it difficult to fully buy into any Democratic lead there, particularly months before Election Day.

But in theory, this cycle also presents Democrats with one of their best opportunities in years. The national environment currently favors Democrats fairly heavily (they lead our generic ballot average by exactly six percent), consumer confidence continues to fall (now to a 10-year low), and Republicans are defending a seat with one of the most polarizing politicians in the country. Paxton remains very popular with parts of the Republican base, but much weaker with independents and suburban voters than someone like Cornyn likely would have been.

That combination is what makes Texas especially important nationally. If Democrats want a realistic path back to a Senate majority in 2026, they likely need at least one major upset in a traditionally Republican state. Right now, Texas increasingly looks like one of their best opportunities to do that.

Whether Texas actually follows through on the hype this time, though, or “Blexas” remains an unfulfilled prophecy, is another question entirely.