Dangerous Severe Weather Threat Moves In Thursday Afternoon
Favorable conditions for all storm threats are set to hit southern Wisconsin
Before I get into the details on tomorrow’s severe weather event, let me start by saying that no, this one is NOT an April Fool’s prank. I’m also writing this while watching the Artemis II launch to the moon, and there is perfect weather at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, so I have to get in the right mindset here…
What to expect
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our threat level to an enhanced risk, a level three out of five. Let’s get into what that means.
Tornadoes - far more likely than typical storms
We are under a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes of the lowest intensity level, but that is still nothing to scoff at. A deep surface low is going to lift toward La Crosse, and the entire setup is uniquely favorable for strong, long-track, fast-moving tornadoes, mainly between 4-9 PM along the I-39 corridor, including Madison/Dane County. I think a tornado watch is fairly likely.
Damaging winds - very likely
We are also under a 30% damaging wind risk, which is pretty much as high as we ever get here, but it is not a hatched (additional intensity) risk, so that’s good.
Hail - possible, but not the main concern
Finally, we have a 15% (not hatched) risk of hail, mainly under two inches in diameter, so not a huge concern. This will most likely be attached to any tornadoes that do spin up or in very isolated storm cells, and hail impacts won’t be widespread.
What to follow tomorrow
Definitely make sure you have weather alerts set up on your phone if possible, and keep an eye on the radar (I recommend WeatherWise) for more details on storm timing. I will probably post a few live updates here as things develop, as we are declaring a (new) Severe Weather Alert Day for tomorrow.