2025 Virginia & New Jersey Governor Forecasts
The latest odds for the governor's mansions in Old Dominion & the Garden State.
About the forecast
Created by Henry Riley
A full write-up of our election forecast methodology is coming soon
This forecast uses a weighted blend of polling data and fundamentals (think past elections, consumer confidence, state partisanship, fundraising, etc.) to forecast the vote shares of each candidate, and then simulates the races with calculated uncertainty to output odds
We are not running forecasts for the following elections (also held tomorrow), but they are equally important: California’s Prop. 50 vote, the NYC mayoral race, and the three Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention elections
We also will not have our own live coverage of election night, but encourage you to follow the results at Decision Desk HQ, will share other resources tomorrow.
The forecast will freeze at 5:00 PM Central time, an hour before VA polls close.
🔃 November 4th, 5:00 PM: It’s Election Day! Our odds and forecasts below have been frozen as we approach the polls closing in Virginia at 6 PM CDT.
New Jersey - Sherrill is favored to win.
Forecast odds
Odds of an upset
A Ciattarelli win is about as likely as a goal in an NHL shootout. That may not seem likely, but it happens.
Forecasted vote shares
Virginia - Spanberger is favored to win.
Forecast odds
Odds of an upset
An Earle-Sears win is about as likely as flipping a coin and getting tails twice. That may not seem likely, but it happens.
Forecasted vote shares
Forecast map
Only states with gubernatorial races this year are shown.