2024 Senate Forecast

The latest odds for the upper chamber of Congress.

About the forecast

• Created by Henry Riley

• Some of the more detailed sections and charts will be paywalled for now, but they will be free to view on Election Day.

• Our other forecasts for the 2024 Election can be found here: https://www.hdranalytics.com/s/2024-election-forecast

• Methodology coming soon

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Our forecast of the presidential race was frozen before Election Day.

🔃 October 27th update: The model’s range of possible outcomes is getting smaller and smaller, and as that means a 50-50 Senate is more likely, Democrats odds have slightly improved as they are favored to win the Vice Presidency.

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Republicans are likely to win the Senate.

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Odds of an upset

A Democratic majority is about as likely as a missed field goal in the NFL. That may not seem likely, but it happens.

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The 2025 Senate

Average seats won by each party in our forecast.

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Forecast map

Only states with races this cycle are shown, and Nebraska’s special election is not.

A * denotes an incumbent, and (I) means that the “Democrat” is an Independent.

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How the forecast has changed

Detailed state-by-state data, additional probabilities and scenarios, and more insights into the forecast are available to paid subscribers soon.