News - HDR Analytics

News - HDR Analytics

Share this post

News - HDR Analytics
News - HDR Analytics
2024 Senate Forecast
2024 Election Forecast

2024 Senate Forecast

The latest odds for the upper chamber of Congress.

Henry Riley's avatar
Henry Riley
Oct 28, 2024
∙ Paid

Share this post

News - HDR Analytics
News - HDR Analytics
2024 Senate Forecast
Share
A wide-aspect logo for a Congress (House and Senate) forecast model. The logo should have a modern and clean design with a stylized U.S. Capitol building in the center, focusing equally on both the House and Senate. The Capitol should be flanked by icons or symbols representing data analysis or forecasting, such as graphs, charts, or line predictions. The color scheme should be patriotic, featuring red, white, and blue, with a professional and polished look. The text 'Congress Forecast Model' should be integrated below the visual elements in a sleek, modern font.

About the forecast

  • Created by Henry Riley

  • Some of the more detailed sections and charts will be paywalled for now, but they will be free to view on Election Day.

  • Our other forecasts for the 2024 Election can be found here: https://www.hdranalytics.com/s/2024-election-forecast

  • Methodology coming soon


Our forecast of the presidential race was frozen before Election Day.

🔃 October 27th update: The model’s range of possible outcomes is getting smaller and smaller, and as that means a 50-50 Senate is more likely, Democrats odds have slightly improved as they are favored to win the Vice Presidency.


Republicans are likely to win the Senate.


Odds of an upset

A Democratic majority is about as likely as a missed field goal in the NFL. That may not seem likely, but it happens.

NFL Shortest Missed Field Goals (Missed Chip Shots)

The 2025 Senate

Average seats won by each party in our forecast.


Forecast map

Only states with races this cycle are shown, and Nebraska’s special election is not.

A * denotes an incumbent, and (I) means that the “Democrat” is an Independent.


How the forecast has changed

Detailed state-by-state data, additional probabilities and scenarios, and more insights into the forecast are available to paid subscribers soon.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to News - HDR Analytics to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Henry Riley
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share