<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[News - HDR Analytics: March Madness Models]]></title><description><![CDATA[Forecasts and ratings for the NCAA men's tournament.]]></description><link>https://news.hdranalytics.com/s/march-madness-models</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dQgp!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41fbf19c-8059-43fb-b132-0d0f052f5997_192x192.png</url><title>News - HDR Analytics: March Madness Models</title><link>https://news.hdranalytics.com/s/march-madness-models</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2026 14:05:38 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://news.hdranalytics.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Henry Riley]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[hdranalytics@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[hdranalytics@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Henry Riley]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Henry Riley]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[hdranalytics@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[hdranalytics@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Henry Riley]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[2025 March Madness Dashboard]]></title><description><![CDATA[Team power ratings, forecasting who will win the championship, and more for the 2025 NCAAMB tournament.]]></description><link>https://news.hdranalytics.com/p/2025-march-madness-dashboard</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.hdranalytics.com/p/2025-march-madness-dashboard</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Henry Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 08 Apr 2025 14:45:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PzYR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc7681aef-80ef-4f18-82cc-4599870e1638_960x540.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PzYR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc7681aef-80ef-4f18-82cc-4599870e1638_960x540.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" 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The forecast has been updated with the latest results. </p></li></ul><div><hr></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hpp0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15f52711-79da-422b-813e-88665ee15072_1200x675.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hpp0!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15f52711-79da-422b-813e-88665ee15072_1200x675.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hpp0!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15f52711-79da-422b-813e-88665ee15072_1200x675.webp 848w, 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stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Congrats to Jason Li, who has won our ESPN Tournament Challenge group and the $30 prize!</p><div><hr></div><h2>2025 March Madness Forecast</h2><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J1FB9/36/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3f808bb3-997e-4a2b-aac3-70ee685edc95_1260x660.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:231,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;2025 March Madness Forecast&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Round-by-round win odds for all remaining teams in the 2025 NCAA Men's Tournament. Odds are based on the team ratings found above. We run 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the bracket using the ratings after each game.  Round-by-round historical odds will post once the tournament concludes.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J1FB9/36/" width="730" height="231" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h2>2025 March Madness Team Ratings</h2><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PH3Cb/3/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f40a00d7-72db-440d-bbbf-e128cc74d66f_1260x660.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:874,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;2025 March Madness Team Ratings&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Team power ratings for all 68 schools in the 2025 NCAA Men's Tournament. Ratings are created using a weighted average of KenPom's NetRtg (adjusted efficiency), ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Points Per Game, and our own Scoring Balance Rating, which is effectively the standard deviation of points per game for a team's top five scorers, with guaranteed injured players excluded.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PH3Cb/3/" width="730" height="874" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><h2>Our bracket picks</h2><p><em>Using a combination of our own ratings and odds from NCAAgamesim.com, we pick a winner in each game/round to identify a champion. Feel free to download the image below.</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg" width="1456" height="987" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:987,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1014778,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.hdranalytics.com/i/159201312?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-q60!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa155e2a4-6543-49ea-995c-f12269e50f4e_2875x1948.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>