About the forecast

• Created by Henry Riley

• Some of the more detailed sections and charts will be paywalled for now, but they will be free to view on Election Day.

• Our Biden-Trump forecast has been frozen and is archived here: https://news.hdranalytics.com/p/2024-biden-trump-forecast

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Our forecast of the presidential race was frozen just before polls closed on Election Night.

🔃 November 5th (FINAL UPDATE): Folks, IT’S ELECTION DAY. To my surprise, a strong economic survey from consumers combined with a shrinking range of outcomes gives Harris an even bigger advantage in the model, with her officially being a “favorite” (not slightly) and having a 3 in 4 shot at the White House. Do I think this is bullish? Personally, no. But it probably is too confident given its inputs. We shall see.

Harris is favored to win the election.

Odds of an upset

A Trump win is about as likely as flipping a coin and getting tails twice. That may not seem likely, but it happens.

The Electoral College

Average electoral votes and the forecast cartogram. Each hexagon represents one electoral vote.

The popular vote

Calculated using state margins and Election Predictions Official's turnout estimates.

How the forecast has changed

Detailed state-by-state data, additional probabilities and scenarios, and more insights into the forecast are available to paid subscribers.

State forecasts

A range of possibilities

What’s likely - and what’s not - with both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

In 80% of simulations, Kamala Harris wins 248 to 339 electoral votes. Donald Trump wins 199 to 290 electoral votes.

What’s the chance of…

The election being decided by the U.S. House: 1.0%

*This could occur with a 269-269 Electoral College tie, or if a third-party candidate receives an electoral vote, stopping the two major candidates from reaching 270. A House election would likely have elected Trump as President and Kamala’s running mate as VP.

Harris winning the popular vote: 90.2%

Trump winning the popular vote: 9.8%

A Harris Electoral College landslide (350+ EV): 5.5%

A Trump Electoral College landslide (350+ EV): 0.2%

An Electoral College landslide (350+ EV): 5.7%

Harris winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College: 23.2%

Trump winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College: 7.4%

A popular vote/Electoral College split: 30.6%

*The candidate who receives more votes nationally is not elected President

The numbers driving the forecast

Key pieces of data used nationally. (across the whole model)

Days remaining until Election Day (Nov. 5th): 0!!!

Max polling weight: 95% of state forecasts

University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment: 70.5

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 108.7

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index: -26

Forecast economic adjustment: +2.0%

(A positive value boosts Harris in the fundamentals, while a negative value boosts Trump)

Harris adjusted national polling average: 49.2%

Trump adjusted national polling average: 45.8%

Third-party adjusted national polling average: 2.3%

Third-party support

Where candidates other than Harris & Trump are performing well.

How the polls are influencing state forecasts

Polling weight, or the percent of a state's forecast is purely based on state polling, whereas the remainder is based on our fundamentals projection.

About the forecast

• Created by Henry Riley

• Some of the more detailed sections and charts will be paywalled for now, but they will be free to view on Election Day.

• Our other forecasts for the 2024 Election can be found here: https://www.hdranalytics.com/s/2024-election-forecast

• Methodology coming soon

Our forecast of the presidential race was frozen before Election Day.

🔃 October 27th update: The model’s range of possible outcomes is getting smaller and smaller, and as that means a 50-50 Senate is more likely, Democrats odds have slightly improved as they are favored to win the Vice Presidency.

Republicans are likely to win the Senate.

Odds of an upset

A Democratic majority is about as likely as a missed field goal in the NFL. That may not seem likely, but it happens.

The 2025 Senate

Average seats won by each party in our forecast.

Forecast map

Only states with races this cycle are shown, and Nebraska’s special election is not.

A * denotes an incumbent, and (I) means that the “Democrat” is an Independent.

How the forecast has changed

Detailed state-by-state data is available to paid subscribers below.

Read more